personal finance money management


Now that Wesabe is officially closed, many users are looking for an alternative that offers the same flexibility and features — for many this alternative is, or should be MoneyStrands.

MoneyStrands is a free tool that has helped people manage their money online since it launched in March 2009 — and in short order has won a Webby award for the best of the web in the banking and bill-pay category. This honor is no surprise when you consider that MoneyStrands offers features you won't find in many competing tools such as Mint.

Like all modern personal finance tools, MoneyStrands can connect to a large number of banking and financial institutions, but unlike most competitors gives users the ability to manually upload their account data. This option is a must-have for those who don't want to give their login info to a third party, or who bank at a smaller bank or credit union that personal finance tools cannot connect to for automatic updates.

MoneyStrands also sets itself apart from the competition because it is designed to make it easy for international and non-English speaking users to use the tool. The MoneyStrands website can be viewed in both English and Spanish with a toggle in the settings and users can choose their preferred currency from a long list. According to MoneyStrands, consumers use the service in 44 countries.

These features supplement the standard account linking and money management that the MoneyStrands tool handles well. Users can view spending and account history in one location as well as compare spending in categories such as shopping, food & dining and more to see how they stack up to the rest of the community. Filters allow you to compare yourself to other members based on age, gender, marital status, education and other variables.

MoneyStrands also has a budgeting tool that tracks spending and sets email alerts when a budget category reaches a certain level so spending can be put in check. The tool is fairly simple and requires users to figure out their own goals, but Atakan Cetinsoy, General Manager of MoneyStrands told WalletPop in a phone interview that an improved budgeting tool that walks users through the process is coming in the next few months.

MoneyStrands is easy to use and offers significant value to users; especially those who can't or don't want to link their accounts directly to a third-party service.

I have a 2d pt job, and many who work for this organization are over 60, some are even in the 80s. It’s great for most of them to work bc many are widows (a few widowers), who enjoy the pt work to keep themselves mentally alert, plus have a social outlet, etc. But only *some* people can keep working that long. That said, none of make a lot doing this work, even those who work full-time.

One colleague of mine is in her mid-70s. She worked most of her life in retail; her last job was at Montgomery Wards. I’m not sure how MW’s 401(k)/pension plan worked, but she expected a nice pension when she retired from there, and she contributed, as did (allegedly) MW to her pension. Whoops, then MW went bankrupt (probably the CEO etc laughed all the way to their offshore account), and my friend’s pension went up in smoke. Too bad, so sad: she is screwed.

So she continues to work; is lucky to be living in the totally paid off house their her parents willed to her (she’s divorced). And she also works pt at another home-based job (cosmetics).

My friend is just barely making it. She gets a small pension from another retail job she did for years (that company also went out of business, but somehow the pensions – or part thereof – survived). If she didn’t have soc sec, she’d really be up the creek. Her kids still have to help her out financially from time to time (which she hates but has not choice, and lucky she has kids who can help). Believe me, my friend leads a frugal life.

And so??? Is she supposed to give up her Soc Sec because she was “too stupid” and made a “poor choice” to work for Montgomery Wards??

Many other good comments already about investing in various instruments. I’ve been investing in securities since 1969, and believe me, investing in stocks, etc, went from being a reasonably sound way to go to being exactly like going to your local casino over the past decade or so. I can only thank the stars that my dad is so out of it with Alzheimers (who thought I’d be grateful for that???) that he is clueless about what’s going on; it would make him certifiably crazy.

Anyone investing in securities these days needs to realize that ALL of it is a huge RISK, and it’s just another form of casino gambling.

Screw these LIARS who attempt to peddle their b.s. that peons either don’t “deserve” Soc Sec – which we contributed to – or that we should start using part of it to invest in the Wall ST casino, which benefits, as always, the uber rich. Ptooooiiiiii!!!!!

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NEW YORK — Katie Couric and the “CBS Evening News” team did some striking work during a two-day trip to Afghanistan last week, only to see some record-setting low ratings in return. The Nielsen Co. ratings have to be discouraging to …

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Fox News has been fairly merciless in its criticism of the 'Ground Zero Mosque.' Commentators on the station consider the mosque to be dangerous and.

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A look at great reads from the editor of the TLS. This week: an economist takes issue with Niall Ferguson’s life of banking legend Warburg, the myths of Charles de Gaulle explored, and does Cardinal Newman deserve to be sainted?

To be thought a good man, it is always useful to cultivate a good myth. The TLS this week looks at mythmakers from the City of London to the Vatican and from General de Gaulle to Napoleon.


High Financier: The Lives and Time of Siegmund Warburg By Niall Ferguson 576 pages. The Penguin Press. $35.
Highest Finance

How good a man, for example, was the mid-20th-century London banker Sir Siegmund Warburg, the subject of Niall Ferguson’s much-praised new biography? Tim Congdon takes issue with the virtuous reputation of a man who he sees as being “lionized” by his biographer in an attempt to highlight Warburg's ethical superiority to the City slickers and shysters of today. Congdon, a longtime monetary economist and adviser to Conservative governments, is unconvinced by the noble case, judging Ferguson naïve about the low tricks that have ever been at the heart of high finance, and too keen “to see in them a public benefit that is not and never was there.” This argument may run and run.


The General: Charles De Gaulle and the France He Saved By Jonathan Fenby 720 pages. Simon & Schuster. £30.
The Myths of Charles de Gaulle

Richard Vinen is intrigued by two new books on General de Gaulle and, in particular, the light they shed on the differing reputations of Churchill and Napoleon, too. De Gaulle, he points out, had to achieve his personal mythology before he achieved any of his own victories; Napoleon needed mythmaking when his victories were long behind him. Churchill’s memoirs are treated in Britain as a source of facts and are found wanting by historians as a result; de Gaulle’s are published in France alongside Gide and Proust as “a kind of fiction” and are venerated accordingly. The books under review are Jonathan Fenby's The General and Sudhir Hazareesingh's Le Mythe Gaullien.


Newman’s Unquiet Grave: The Reluctant Saint By John Cornwell 256 pages. Continuum. £18.99.
Saint Cardinal Newman?

As British Catholics await the pope’s visit in September, during which he will beatify the influential English cardinal, John Henry Newman, there is much discussion of whether the virtues displayed by the author of Apologia Pro Vita Sua will in time boost his own mythology still further? Is a formal declaration of sainthood the imminent next step. Anthony Kenny, reviewing a biography subtitled The Reluctant Saint, praises Newman’s prose style and intellectual power, while dismissing briskly as “absurd” the notion, popularized in the media, that he was ever homosexually active. Bernard Manzo examines the paradox of Newman as the literary man who instinctively preferred reading and writing tales of dreams to becoming a part of one himself. Newman considered Scripture to be a “record of an idea that lived in its fullness in the minds of the Apostles.” The letters of St. Paul were “literature in a real and true sense,” comparable in the cardinal’s mind to great Greek plays and the most powerful political speeches.

Plus: Check out Book Beast, for more news on hot titles and authors and excerpts from the latest books.

Peter Stothard's latest book is On the Spartacus Road: A Spectacular Journey Through Ancient Italy. He is also the author of Thirty Days, a Downing Street diary of his time with British Prime Minister Tony Blair during the Iraq war.

Get a head start with the Morning Scoop email. It's your Cheat Sheet with must reads from across the Web. Get it. For more books coverage follow Book Beast on Twitter.

For inquiries, please contact The Daily Beast at editorial@thedailybeast.com.

Jeff Yeager's latest book, The Cheapskate Next Door, landed in bookstores on June 8 and is the perfect personal-finance book for the new economy.

In the past, most personal-finance books have tried to teach readers how to build a seven-figure net worth. Yeager traveled around the country talking to some of the cheapest people in America and learned the secrets to living happier, more fulfilled lives with less stuff.

DailyFinance: What's been the most surprising thing that you learned about cheapskates working on this book?

Jeff Yeager: You know, I surveyed more than 300 self-described cheapskates for this new book — and interviewed many of them personally — and while there were many surprising things I learned along the way, overall it was that for the vast majority of them, like 90%+, their decision to live the frugal lifestyle wasn't about money at all. It was almost always grounded in a bigger belief. Sometimes it was a religious belief, sometimes environmentalism, sometimes something else. These aren't greedy, Scrooge-like, pensive penny-pinchers I write about. These are people who recognize that there's a lot more to life than money and stuff, and they've found creative ways to make money a less important part of their lives. They know what they want, and they skip the rest.

In your book, you mention that cheapskates hate debt. But I think there's a popular perception that people who “win” with money rely heavily on what many consider to be “good” forms of debt. In your experience, how do cheapskates feel about things like student loans and mortgages?

Well, I'll bet you that there are a whole lot fewer people who believe that stuff about “good debt” than there were a few years ago, don't you think? For the cheapskates next door, debt still stings. They understand that there's a big difference between “affordability” — Can I really afford it? — and what I call “borrowability” Can I borrow enough money to buy it now? Ninety-five percent of them live debt free, with the possible exception of owing on a home mortgage, and even then the vast majority of those with a mortgage told me that they plan to pay it off early, or already have. Admittedly we're talking an old-school attitude toward the perils of borrowing money, but I think the wisdom of the cheapskate ways is being proven out these days in a very visible — and in many cases, painful — way. As for using debt to create wealth, let me be really clear about this: I don't write books about how to get rich, which is what the vast majority of personal finance books are ultimately about. I write books about how to get happy, perhaps with what you already have. Part of that is showing people how to spend smart, regardless of how much money they have, but the bigger part of what I write about is quality of life, and issues regarding human happiness. As I said in my first book, I'm afraid we live in a culture that's more concerned about amassing a quantity of stuff, rather than amassing a quality of life.

You talk in the book about buying used. What are some advantages to buying used that a lot of people don't necessarily think of?

Obviously there are positive environmental aspects. Mother Nature thanks you for using it up and wearing it out, rather than rushing out to buy a new one. But of the cheapskates I surveyed, the environmental impact of their frugal lifestyles was only important to about half of them, even though their frugal behavior is inherently green — greener, in fact, than those self-proclaimed environmentalist who rush out to buy the latest expensive, eco-friendly products when they don't even need them. Sorry for the tangent, but I've been an ardent environmentalist my whole life, and some of the current consumer-driven trends in environmentalism bother me. Of course, there's also a tremendous economic advantage to, as one cheapskate told me, “letting the other guy pay for depreciation,” which is what you're doing, at least to some degree, when you buy used. Most of the cheapskates I interviewed we're also very tuned into the issue of “appreciation,” always looking for items that might actually increase in value over time rather than lose value. That's why the Amish, for example, often buy antique furniture. Cheapskates think about appreciation when buying a wide range of consumer products … cars, furniture, even clothing. Let's face it, most consumers only stop to think about appreciation when they buy a house, and even then, they're often not very smart about it.

One of the things you talk about is how being a cheapskate will actually make you happier. But a lot of people think buying cool stuff will make you happier. Why isn't that the case?

Of course, pretty much all the social science about human happiness suggests that more money and more stuff really doesn't make us happier, at least once we're above the poverty level. Most “stuff” tends to eventually disappoint us. Americans eventually express at least some regrets about almost 80% of the discretionary items they buy. “Buyer's remorse” is an epidemic in our culture. On the other hand, the cheapskates I surveyed regret only about 10% of their discretionary purchases. So, it's not that they're depriving themselves of things — or, if they are, they're mostly depriving themselves of the 80% of the crap that most people buy, only to regret later. The fact that that type of smart spending allows the cheapskates next door to live debt free — and therefore a less stressful, less money-centered lifestyle — is one of the secrets to happiness that they have to share with the rest of us. More than 9 out of 10 of the cheapskates in my survey said that they think about/stress out about money less than most non-cheapskates they know. They also get divorced at only about half the national rate, in part because they rarely have “money problems.” I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention that of the cheapskates I polled, they donate nearly twice as much to charity as the average American. Again, that's because for most of them, their decision to live a frugal lifestyle isn't about the money at all.


www.bookbrowserinc.com

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Fox <b>News</b> Contributor Bill Kristol: 'I Agree With Harry Reid'

Fox News' Bill Kristol agrees with Majority Leader Harry Reid over planned mosque.

ABC Phones-In The <b>News</b> With Skype

The video quality may be terrible, but hey, it's cheap.

Montana Fishburne shunned by father for not using a porn name in <b>…</b>

about this blog. The FOX411 Blog is your first call for celebrity and entertainment news. FOX411 brings you the latest scoops using FOX's unmatched reach in news, entertainment, TV and the Internet. Click on back now, ya hear? …

Fox <b>News</b> Contributor Bill Kristol: 'I Agree With Harry Reid'

Fox News' Bill Kristol agrees with Majority Leader Harry Reid over planned mosque.

ABC Phones-In The <b>News</b> With Skype

The video quality may be terrible, but hey, it's cheap.

Montana Fishburne shunned by father for not using a porn name in <b>…</b>

about this blog. The FOX411 Blog is your first call for celebrity and entertainment news. FOX411 brings you the latest scoops using FOX's unmatched reach in news, entertainment, TV and the Internet. Click on back now, ya hear? …

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Some Republicans and Democrats can get their heads together now and then.

When I had the privilege of working for Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) in the US Senate, I had just moved over from serving as founding Executive Director of the Nixon Center for Peace & Freedom, later renamed (thankfully) “The Nixon Center”.

Senator Bingaman at the time, along with his chief of staff Patrick Von Bargen, were asking key questions about the structure of international trade and finance and why such large bilateral deficits were building between the US and respectively Japan and China. University of Chicago-trained neoclassical economists regularly parroted the line that bilateral deficits were “meaningless” and would be balanced out over time with other global trade partners — and would on a bilateral basis rise and fall, appearing and disappearing in a highly fluid global economic environment.

Bingaman's and Von Bargen's questions then are even more relevant today — and given the time on the clock since, it's clear that the economists who argued that deficits were meaningless or that a job is a job is a job — whether working as a wallet maker or a nano-technology app developer — were wrong.

But Jeff Bingaman, even though skeptical about how the global economy was working in real rather than ideological terms, never turned his back on international engagement. In 1996, Bingaman, Von Bargen and I traveled to Japan, South Korea, China, and other parts of Asia. This, then, was an annual trip supplemented by his personal trips to Guatemala and trips to Europe, Russia and more. Bingaman, now Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy, remains deeply engaged and interested in international affairs.

And while most Senators and Congressman make a point of pushing 95% of their available press time towards the Bartlesville news outlet (in the case of Oklahoma) over the demands of the Yomiuri, Le Monde, Al Jazeera, or the People's Daily, Bingaman is one that does make time for international media.

The Nixon Center as well was stacked with big personalities who were then and remain deeply committed to America's engagement in global affairs. While the Nixon Center is actually fastidiously non-partisan and has key Dems and Republicans engaged with it, it's hard to hide all of its Republican stripes when in fact the institution's inspiration and founder was a powerful two-term winning Republican President of the United States.

My point is that there are Democrats and Republicans — lots of them — committed to robust international engagement, to smart foreign aid, and to coherent and sensible U.S. international public diplomacy.

But just as when I worked for Bingaman in the Senate and there were some Democrats and more Republicans who looked at having a passport as a political liability, many in the Tea Party movement are a manifestation of a similar pugnacious nationalism that disdains international institutions and US engagement abroad.

One of the major bipartisan NGOs committed to internationalism in Washington is the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. I attended the USGLC's gala dinner last year featuring NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

But the guy who really impressed me was the charismatic Republican Congressman from Illinois, Aaron Schock — who went on stage and made a case as strong as any liberal internationalist I have heard for the hard core national interest reasons that the U.S. should support global affairs and engagement — and yes, foreign aid budgets.

Aaron Schock is a serious player on the way up — and too many are distracted by his better than average looks and youth. I didn't support his approach to Honduras (for the most part) that he seemed to have jointly worked out with Senator Jim DeMint — but that is beside the point. Schock is thinking hard about smart policy, not just coasting with his new found power and privileges in Washington.

If the USGLC can bring Hillary Clinton and the Republican House Deputy Whip together to sing from similar playbooks, then I have time for this private sector initiative to promote public support for international engagement.

If you are in DC (and if not, I am sure that there will be “live streaming” that I will arrange to have run here at TWN), you might want to attend the annual USGLC 2010 Washington Conference (registration information here) that takes place September 28-29, 2010 at Washington's Grand Hyatt.

I would support this meeting whether I was speaking or not — but I happen to be on the program along with NBC Meet the Press' David Gregory, Under Secretary of the Treasury Lael Brainard, US AID Administrator Rajiv Shah, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk, and the indefatigable Joshua Rogin — who writes Foreign Policy's “The Cable”.

– Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note. Clemons can be followed on Twitter @SCClemons


Now that Wesabe is officially closed, many users are looking for an alternative that offers the same flexibility and features — for many this alternative is, or should be MoneyStrands.

MoneyStrands is a free tool that has helped people manage their money online since it launched in March 2009 — and in short order has won a Webby award for the best of the web in the banking and bill-pay category. This honor is no surprise when you consider that MoneyStrands offers features you won't find in many competing tools such as Mint.

Like all modern personal finance tools, MoneyStrands can connect to a large number of banking and financial institutions, but unlike most competitors gives users the ability to manually upload their account data. This option is a must-have for those who don't want to give their login info to a third party, or who bank at a smaller bank or credit union that personal finance tools cannot connect to for automatic updates.

MoneyStrands also sets itself apart from the competition because it is designed to make it easy for international and non-English speaking users to use the tool. The MoneyStrands website can be viewed in both English and Spanish with a toggle in the settings and users can choose their preferred currency from a long list. According to MoneyStrands, consumers use the service in 44 countries.

These features supplement the standard account linking and money management that the MoneyStrands tool handles well. Users can view spending and account history in one location as well as compare spending in categories such as shopping, food & dining and more to see how they stack up to the rest of the community. Filters allow you to compare yourself to other members based on age, gender, marital status, education and other variables.

MoneyStrands also has a budgeting tool that tracks spending and sets email alerts when a budget category reaches a certain level so spending can be put in check. The tool is fairly simple and requires users to figure out their own goals, but Atakan Cetinsoy, General Manager of MoneyStrands told WalletPop in a phone interview that an improved budgeting tool that walks users through the process is coming in the next few months.

MoneyStrands is easy to use and offers significant value to users; especially those who can't or don't want to link their accounts directly to a third-party service.
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Five Best Personal Money Management Sites

Web-based financial management tools have grown in sophistication to the point where many people manage their entire financial lives with online tools. Here's a look at five of the most popular personal money management sites.

Photo a mashup of images by Leonardini and Wilton.

Earlier this week we asked you to share your favorite personal money management site; now we're back to highlight the five most popular contenders.

Click on the screenshots below to take a closer look.

Buxfer (Basic: Free, Premium: From $2.79/month)

Many people are hesitant to use online banking services because of security concerns. Buxfer's compromise to provide ease of use while also assuring users and keeping things as controlled as they would like is to offer multiple methods for storing your credentials. You can manually synchronize your financial accounts with the site, you can store your passwords and login credentials locally using Google Gears, Firefox, or Safari, or you can use the Firebux Firefox extension—Firebux helps you automate the process of downloading financial data from your banking institutions and reviewing Buxfer data. If you'd like to skip the hassle of handling your own syncing, Buxfer offers automatic nightly syncing of your financial data, automatically logging into and pulling data from your various online money portals. Buxfer comes in three flavors: Basic (free), Plus ($2.79 per month), and Pro ($3.79 per month). All accounts include features like split bills, automatic tagging, and mobile access, but you'll pay a premium for unlimited budgets, bill reminders, and balance projections. You can try a live demo of Buxfer here.

Yodlee MoneyCenter (Free)

As many readers were quick to point out, Yodlee provides the guts to the user sites for hundreds of banking and financial services. Organizations like Mint, Thrive, and large banks like Chase use rebranded but Yodlee-powered interfaces. Yodlee users will often characterize Yodlee as similar to Mint, but without such a strong emphasis on flashy graphics. Instead it focuses more on analyzing your raw data—transaction descriptions, for example, are easier to search and more detailed. Yodlee can import data from thousands of institutions, help you generate a budget, automate your bill paying, and send out user-defined alerts. If you like the idea of a site like Mint but want more fine-grained control and the ability to manually tweak things when necessary, Yodlee is a solid alternative.

Mint (Free)

Mint has risen to prominence as a major player among web-based financial management tools by putting an extreme emphasis on user-friendliness and automation. The focus on automation is so strong, in fact, they only recently added the ability to add in any sort of manual transactions. By providing Mint with your various logins, you can track all your financial accounts in one place—checking, savings, credit cards, investments—and easily generate budgets and projections based off your data. Mint has won many people over, especially in the younger demographic, by being the first tool they've used to really get a good look at their money and where it's going.

ClearCheckbook (Basic: Free, Premium: $4/month)

ClearCheckbook is a web-based checking account ledger on steroids. You can track your spending, input your daily expenses from the web-interface or from your iPhone, Android, or Palm, and generate a budget with spending limits. Upgrading to a premium account gets you a custom report tool, custom transaction fields, future balance projection, and editing of the auto-suggest feature. Visit ClearCheckbook at the link above to check out the video tours of both the free and premium accounts—available at the bottom of the main page.

Mvelopes ($39.60/quarter)

Mvelopes is a robust web-based financial tool built on the old principle of budgeting with envelopes—each budget category gets an envelope with a set amount of money. Its focus on an old budgeting technique, however, doesn't mean you're stuck with dated tools. Mvelopes automatically pulls transaction data from hundreds of financial institutions, supports automatic bill payment, and helps you generate snapshots of your net worth as you adjust your budget and goals. Mvelopes is notable for being the only contender in the Hive without a free account option, a testament perhaps to how happy people are with the service that it made an appearance in the top five despite the lack of free-as-in-beer option.

Now that you've had a chance to look over the top five contenders for best personal money management sites, it's time to cast a vote for your favorite:

Have a favorite web-based tool that didn't get a nod or want to talk up your favorite a bit more? Let's hear it in the comments. Have an idea for the next Hive Five? Send us an email at tips@lifehacker.com with “Hive Five” in the subject line and we'll do our best to get your idea the attention it deserves.

Send an email to Jason Fitzpatrick, the author of this post, at jason@lifehacker.com.

Five Best Personal Money Management Sites

Web-based financial management tools have grown in sophistication to the point where many people manage their entire financial lives with online tools. Here's a look at five of the most popular personal money management sites.

Photo a mashup of images by Leonardini and Wilton.

Earlier this week we asked you to share your favorite personal money management site; now we're back to highlight the five most popular contenders.

Click on the screenshots below to take a closer look.

Buxfer (Basic: Free, Premium: From $2.79/month)

Many people are hesitant to use online banking services because of security concerns. Buxfer's compromise to provide ease of use while also assuring users and keeping things as controlled as they would like is to offer multiple methods for storing your credentials. You can manually synchronize your financial accounts with the site, you can store your passwords and login credentials locally using Google Gears, Firefox, or Safari, or you can use the Firebux Firefox extension—Firebux helps you automate the process of downloading financial data from your banking institutions and reviewing Buxfer data. If you'd like to skip the hassle of handling your own syncing, Buxfer offers automatic nightly syncing of your financial data, automatically logging into and pulling data from your various online money portals. Buxfer comes in three flavors: Basic (free), Plus ($2.79 per month), and Pro ($3.79 per month). All accounts include features like split bills, automatic tagging, and mobile access, but you'll pay a premium for unlimited budgets, bill reminders, and balance projections. You can try a live demo of Buxfer here.

Yodlee MoneyCenter (Free)

As many readers were quick to point out, Yodlee provides the guts to the user sites for hundreds of banking and financial services. Organizations like Mint, Thrive, and large banks like Chase use rebranded but Yodlee-powered interfaces. Yodlee users will often characterize Yodlee as similar to Mint, but without such a strong emphasis on flashy graphics. Instead it focuses more on analyzing your raw data—transaction descriptions, for example, are easier to search and more detailed. Yodlee can import data from thousands of institutions, help you generate a budget, automate your bill paying, and send out user-defined alerts. If you like the idea of a site like Mint but want more fine-grained control and the ability to manually tweak things when necessary, Yodlee is a solid alternative.

Mint (Free)

Mint has risen to prominence as a major player among web-based financial management tools by putting an extreme emphasis on user-friendliness and automation. The focus on automation is so strong, in fact, they only recently added the ability to add in any sort of manual transactions. By providing Mint with your various logins, you can track all your financial accounts in one place—checking, savings, credit cards, investments—and easily generate budgets and projections based off your data. Mint has won many people over, especially in the younger demographic, by being the first tool they've used to really get a good look at their money and where it's going.

ClearCheckbook (Basic: Free, Premium: $4/month)

ClearCheckbook is a web-based checking account ledger on steroids. You can track your spending, input your daily expenses from the web-interface or from your iPhone, Android, or Palm, and generate a budget with spending limits. Upgrading to a premium account gets you a custom report tool, custom transaction fields, future balance projection, and editing of the auto-suggest feature. Visit ClearCheckbook at the link above to check out the video tours of both the free and premium accounts—available at the bottom of the main page.

Mvelopes ($39.60/quarter)

Mvelopes is a robust web-based financial tool built on the old principle of budgeting with envelopes—each budget category gets an envelope with a set amount of money. Its focus on an old budgeting technique, however, doesn't mean you're stuck with dated tools. Mvelopes automatically pulls transaction data from hundreds of financial institutions, supports automatic bill payment, and helps you generate snapshots of your net worth as you adjust your budget and goals. Mvelopes is notable for being the only contender in the Hive without a free account option, a testament perhaps to how happy people are with the service that it made an appearance in the top five despite the lack of free-as-in-beer option.

Now that you've had a chance to look over the top five contenders for best personal money management sites, it's time to cast a vote for your favorite:

Have a favorite web-based tool that didn't get a nod or want to talk up your favorite a bit more? Let's hear it in the comments. Have an idea for the next Hive Five? Send us an email at tips@lifehacker.com with “Hive Five” in the subject line and we'll do our best to get your idea the attention it deserves.

Send an email to Jason Fitzpatrick, the author of this post, at jason@lifehacker.com.

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2010_01_02_to_06_0051 by Vikram Chadaga

Five Best Personal Money Management Sites

Web-based financial management tools have grown in sophistication to the point where many people manage their entire financial lives with online tools. Here's a look at five of the most popular personal money management sites.

Photo a mashup of images by Leonardini and Wilton.

Earlier this week we asked you to share your favorite personal money management site; now we're back to highlight the five most popular contenders.

Click on the screenshots below to take a closer look.

Buxfer (Basic: Free, Premium: From $2.79/month)

Many people are hesitant to use online banking services because of security concerns. Buxfer's compromise to provide ease of use while also assuring users and keeping things as controlled as they would like is to offer multiple methods for storing your credentials. You can manually synchronize your financial accounts with the site, you can store your passwords and login credentials locally using Google Gears, Firefox, or Safari, or you can use the Firebux Firefox extension—Firebux helps you automate the process of downloading financial data from your banking institutions and reviewing Buxfer data. If you'd like to skip the hassle of handling your own syncing, Buxfer offers automatic nightly syncing of your financial data, automatically logging into and pulling data from your various online money portals. Buxfer comes in three flavors: Basic (free), Plus ($2.79 per month), and Pro ($3.79 per month). All accounts include features like split bills, automatic tagging, and mobile access, but you'll pay a premium for unlimited budgets, bill reminders, and balance projections. You can try a live demo of Buxfer here.

Yodlee MoneyCenter (Free)

As many readers were quick to point out, Yodlee provides the guts to the user sites for hundreds of banking and financial services. Organizations like Mint, Thrive, and large banks like Chase use rebranded but Yodlee-powered interfaces. Yodlee users will often characterize Yodlee as similar to Mint, but without such a strong emphasis on flashy graphics. Instead it focuses more on analyzing your raw data—transaction descriptions, for example, are easier to search and more detailed. Yodlee can import data from thousands of institutions, help you generate a budget, automate your bill paying, and send out user-defined alerts. If you like the idea of a site like Mint but want more fine-grained control and the ability to manually tweak things when necessary, Yodlee is a solid alternative.

Mint (Free)

Mint has risen to prominence as a major player among web-based financial management tools by putting an extreme emphasis on user-friendliness and automation. The focus on automation is so strong, in fact, they only recently added the ability to add in any sort of manual transactions. By providing Mint with your various logins, you can track all your financial accounts in one place—checking, savings, credit cards, investments—and easily generate budgets and projections based off your data. Mint has won many people over, especially in the younger demographic, by being the first tool they've used to really get a good look at their money and where it's going.

ClearCheckbook (Basic: Free, Premium: $4/month)

ClearCheckbook is a web-based checking account ledger on steroids. You can track your spending, input your daily expenses from the web-interface or from your iPhone, Android, or Palm, and generate a budget with spending limits. Upgrading to a premium account gets you a custom report tool, custom transaction fields, future balance projection, and editing of the auto-suggest feature. Visit ClearCheckbook at the link above to check out the video tours of both the free and premium accounts—available at the bottom of the main page.

Mvelopes ($39.60/quarter)

Mvelopes is a robust web-based financial tool built on the old principle of budgeting with envelopes—each budget category gets an envelope with a set amount of money. Its focus on an old budgeting technique, however, doesn't mean you're stuck with dated tools. Mvelopes automatically pulls transaction data from hundreds of financial institutions, supports automatic bill payment, and helps you generate snapshots of your net worth as you adjust your budget and goals. Mvelopes is notable for being the only contender in the Hive without a free account option, a testament perhaps to how happy people are with the service that it made an appearance in the top five despite the lack of free-as-in-beer option.

Now that you've had a chance to look over the top five contenders for best personal money management sites, it's time to cast a vote for your favorite:

Have a favorite web-based tool that didn't get a nod or want to talk up your favorite a bit more? Let's hear it in the comments. Have an idea for the next Hive Five? Send us an email at tips@lifehacker.com with “Hive Five” in the subject line and we'll do our best to get your idea the attention it deserves.

Send an email to Jason Fitzpatrick, the author of this post, at jason@lifehacker.com.

Five Best Personal Money Management Sites

Web-based financial management tools have grown in sophistication to the point where many people manage their entire financial lives with online tools. Here's a look at five of the most popular personal money management sites.

Photo a mashup of images by Leonardini and Wilton.

Earlier this week we asked you to share your favorite personal money management site; now we're back to highlight the five most popular contenders.

Click on the screenshots below to take a closer look.

Buxfer (Basic: Free, Premium: From $2.79/month)

Many people are hesitant to use online banking services because of security concerns. Buxfer's compromise to provide ease of use while also assuring users and keeping things as controlled as they would like is to offer multiple methods for storing your credentials. You can manually synchronize your financial accounts with the site, you can store your passwords and login credentials locally using Google Gears, Firefox, or Safari, or you can use the Firebux Firefox extension—Firebux helps you automate the process of downloading financial data from your banking institutions and reviewing Buxfer data. If you'd like to skip the hassle of handling your own syncing, Buxfer offers automatic nightly syncing of your financial data, automatically logging into and pulling data from your various online money portals. Buxfer comes in three flavors: Basic (free), Plus ($2.79 per month), and Pro ($3.79 per month). All accounts include features like split bills, automatic tagging, and mobile access, but you'll pay a premium for unlimited budgets, bill reminders, and balance projections. You can try a live demo of Buxfer here.

Yodlee MoneyCenter (Free)

As many readers were quick to point out, Yodlee provides the guts to the user sites for hundreds of banking and financial services. Organizations like Mint, Thrive, and large banks like Chase use rebranded but Yodlee-powered interfaces. Yodlee users will often characterize Yodlee as similar to Mint, but without such a strong emphasis on flashy graphics. Instead it focuses more on analyzing your raw data—transaction descriptions, for example, are easier to search and more detailed. Yodlee can import data from thousands of institutions, help you generate a budget, automate your bill paying, and send out user-defined alerts. If you like the idea of a site like Mint but want more fine-grained control and the ability to manually tweak things when necessary, Yodlee is a solid alternative.

Mint (Free)

Mint has risen to prominence as a major player among web-based financial management tools by putting an extreme emphasis on user-friendliness and automation. The focus on automation is so strong, in fact, they only recently added the ability to add in any sort of manual transactions. By providing Mint with your various logins, you can track all your financial accounts in one place—checking, savings, credit cards, investments—and easily generate budgets and projections based off your data. Mint has won many people over, especially in the younger demographic, by being the first tool they've used to really get a good look at their money and where it's going.

ClearCheckbook (Basic: Free, Premium: $4/month)

ClearCheckbook is a web-based checking account ledger on steroids. You can track your spending, input your daily expenses from the web-interface or from your iPhone, Android, or Palm, and generate a budget with spending limits. Upgrading to a premium account gets you a custom report tool, custom transaction fields, future balance projection, and editing of the auto-suggest feature. Visit ClearCheckbook at the link above to check out the video tours of both the free and premium accounts—available at the bottom of the main page.

Mvelopes ($39.60/quarter)

Mvelopes is a robust web-based financial tool built on the old principle of budgeting with envelopes—each budget category gets an envelope with a set amount of money. Its focus on an old budgeting technique, however, doesn't mean you're stuck with dated tools. Mvelopes automatically pulls transaction data from hundreds of financial institutions, supports automatic bill payment, and helps you generate snapshots of your net worth as you adjust your budget and goals. Mvelopes is notable for being the only contender in the Hive without a free account option, a testament perhaps to how happy people are with the service that it made an appearance in the top five despite the lack of free-as-in-beer option.

Now that you've had a chance to look over the top five contenders for best personal money management sites, it's time to cast a vote for your favorite:

Have a favorite web-based tool that didn't get a nod or want to talk up your favorite a bit more? Let's hear it in the comments. Have an idea for the next Hive Five? Send us an email at tips@lifehacker.com with “Hive Five” in the subject line and we'll do our best to get your idea the attention it deserves.

Send an email to Jason Fitzpatrick, the author of this post, at jason@lifehacker.com.

online stock trading online stock trading

MagneticNorth debuts MoviePeg for iPad | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the MagneticNorth debuts MoviePeg for iPad. Find more iPad Accessories news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.

Small Business <b>News</b>: The Online Entrepreneur | Small Business <b>News</b> <b>…</b>

Planning a new small business? You may want to consider doing it online. In this small business news roundup, we look at a variety of tools and tips for.

Next OpFlash &quot;takes on board feedback&quot; <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net

Read our news of Next OpFlash. … Latest News. Next Operation Flashpoint named . Latest Screenshots. Screenshot Today 09:40 . Developer EA DICE. Publisher Electronic Arts. Release Date TBC …

2010_01_02_to_06_0051 by Vikram Chadaga

big white booty

Comments

personal finance books

In the past I have been in financial prison while making a ‘good’ living, and now find myself more financially ‘free’ while making less money than I’ve earned in almost 20 years. I think financial freedom is mostly about attitude. Freedom means that I have choices, and mostly, choices are about having an awareness of what my choices are.

e.g. I bought gas for the car today and when I wrote down the debit in my checkbook and spending notebook (that I carry everywhere) I realized I had not spent any money in almost one week. I also realized that although it is two days til payday, I have over $250 in my checking account. (not including a small amount in savings.) When I was earning three times my current income in the early 1990’s it was rare that I had any money by two days before payday, making those last couple of days before payday very fearful.

I could have chosen not to buy gas today and instead walked or taken the bus everywhere I need to travel, in my city it is not an easy way to function but it is doable. So buying gas for the car was a choice. However it was not a choice I wanted to make.

However, some “spending less” choices I do make. I choose not to have cable TV. I have “rabbit ears” and get seven channels, which is about six more than I need. I rarely buy clothes, (probably about $200 per year total) and usually they come from Goodwill or TJ Maxx or big sales at Macy’s. I rarely eat out, but I eat very well at home. I NEVER buy coffee out, even though I am a coffee snob. Instead, I buy fair trade organic coffee a pound at a time and make it at home. A pound for $10 lasts over two weeks, compared to $2 per cup in a cafe.

I have a busy social life, I am involved in church and civic life, I have family and relationship commitments, I teach and consult and write professionally. I go to cultural events (many are free or super cheap in my city.) I read a lot. (mostly used books or library books.)

My life is rich and full and I use my money is as a tool to make that happen. I also donate ten percent of my gross to my church, which is heavily involved in social justice causes.
At times I get wistful about things that I want or places I’d like to travel. At some point I will make a choice to shift some of my money toward those things, but I feel financially free about 90 percent of the time in my current lifestyle.

Part of my money goes toward saving and part on paying off old debt but both are at a pace that is workable for both me and my creditors. I don’t let it make me crazy or compromise my quality of life.

Every time I make my mortgage payment I am making a choice. Every time I pay my electric bill I am making a choice. The consequences of not making those payments are not consequences that I want to experience. However, it is still MY CHOICE.

I don’t know what the meaning of life is, but I think that if something happens to me tomorrow, I will be much more satisfied with my time on earth living how I live today than if I had spent the last several years sacrificing everything I enjoy in order to put more money in the bank, in order to have “financial freedom.”

“To Have More, Desire Less.”

I met James Montier at a value investment seminar in Italy in 2007 where he presented. We had long discussions later the day and into the evening on value investing and investment strategy.

James was kind enough to put me on his distribution list and I really looked forward to each of his articles as they always taught me something.

Unfortunately James decreased his writings since taking a position with the asset manager GMO in 2010.

I decided to put this resource page together so Eurosharelab visitors can also benefit from James’s investment wisdom.

James Montier’s Amazon Page shows all the books he has authored as well as the following short biography:

James Montier is a member of GMO’s asset allocation team.

Prior to that, he was the co-Head of Global Strategy at Société Générale and has been the top-rated strategist in the annual Thomson Extel survey for most of the last decade.

Montier is the author of four market-leading books:

• The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your own worst enemy (Little Book, Big Profits)

• Behavioral Finance: Insights into Irrational Minds and Markets

• Behavioral Investing: A Practitioners Guide to Applying Behavioral Finance

• Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment

He is a Visiting Fellow at the University of Durham and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts.

2010

In this May 2010 article called I Want to Break Free, or, Strategic Asset Allocation does not equal Static Asset Allocation James Montier talks about in the beginning investing was a simpler and happier.

The essence of investment was to seek out value; to buy what was cheap with a margin of safety. Investors could move up and down the capital structure (from bonds to equities) as they saw fit. If nothing fit the criteria for investing, then cash was the default option.

But that changed with the rise of modern portfolio theory and, not coincidentally, the rise of “professional investment managers” and consultants.

In March 2010 Miguel Barbosa in his Simolean Sense blog interviewed James Montier about his book Value Investing: Tools & Techniques For Intelligent Investing.

In the second part of the interview Miguel talks to James about his other book The Little Book of Behavioral Investing – How Not To Be Your Own Worst Enemy.

In this February 2010 article, the first since joining GMO, James Montier asks Was It All Just A Bad Dream? Or, Ten Lessons Not Learnt from the financial crisis.

2009

In November 2009 article titled Only White Swans on the Road to Revulsion James Montier makes the argument that that the housing bubble and the crisis following its collapse was not an unforeseen event but rather the result of over optimism and the illusion of control, two classic human behavioural mistakes.

This article is the text of a speech called Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast, or how EMH has damaged our industry which James Montier delivered at the at the August 2009 CFA UK conference on “What ever happened to EMH”. Dedicated to Peter Bernstein (EMH = Efficient Market Hypothesis)

Here is the video recording of the above mentioned speech by James Montier: Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast. The video is 42 minutes long, but well worth watching.

The financial times in this 24 June 2009 article EMH, AMH: Edwards and Montier ride again motions James Montier leaving Societe Generale to join US investment manager Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co, just after he and Albert Edwards won the Thomson Extel European analysts award in May 2009 as the top global strategy team.

In this 2 June 2009 research paper Forever blowing bubbles: moral hazard and melt-up James Montier explored the bubble phenomenon and what happens in the future after a bubble pops. He explores the possibility that all the government rescue packages initiated in 2008 have the possibility to again inflate a substantial bubble.

In this 24 June 2009 Financial Times article called Insight: Efficient markets theory is dead. James Montier explains why the efficient markets theory is dead but still lives because of academic inertia.

In June 2009 James Montier’s published this list of his Favorite Investment Books as well as a Summer reading list of more recent titles.

In May 2009 shortly after the market started its recovery from its March 9 2009 lows James Montier in this article titled Sucker’s rally or the birth of a bull? asks if this is a suckers rally and if so what investors could do to protect themselves. He also gives a few short ideas from his shorting screen.

In this 27 January 2009 article Clear and present danger: the trinity of risk, James Montier writes about the three primary and interrelated sources of investment risk; Valuation risk, business or earnings risk and balance sheet or financial risk.

2008

In this excellent review of James Montier’s book – Behavioral Investing: A Practitioner’s Guide to Applying Behavioral Finance, Bruce Grantier summarises the main points of the book with emphasis on mistakes and biases followed by a discussion of number of behavioral phenomena.

In the article The psychology of bear markets published in December 2009, during the brunt of the bear market James Montier writes about that the mental barriers to effective decision-making in bear markets are as many and varied as those that plague rationality during bull markets but that they more pronounced as fear and shock limits logical analysis.

In this 25 Nov 2008 article called The road to revulsion and the creation of value, James Montier argues that the road to revulsion – sharply declining prices – ends in an investment nirvana with unambiguously cheap assets.

In this 25 November 2008 Bloomberg article Montier Has ‘Never Been More Bullish’ on Stocks James Montier makes the cast that stocks are “distinctly cheap” because they trade at 15.4 times the 10-year moving average of its companies’ profits, compared with an average of 18 for the U.S. market since 1881.James wrote that fifteen stocks in the U.S. index, pass his test for “deep value,” while a tenth of shares in Europe and a fifth in Asia qualify.

In this 27 October 2008 article – An admission of ignorance: a humble approach to investing James Montier details his investment strategy.

It makes no sense to forecast, the importance of a margin of safety, avoid trying to time the market and buy cheap insurance. But most importantly, humility should be the central theme of a good investment process.

In this October 22nd, 2008 Financial Times blog post by Paul Murphy summarises an article Analysts are rubbish by James Montier about the bullish bias built in to the investment industry by the analysts and that analysts are exceptionally good at one thing and one thing only – telling you what has just happened.

In this 9 September 2008 article – The dangers of DCF James Montier writes about the dangers Of Discount cash flow (DCF) saying its implementation is riddled with problems but the good news is that several alternatives exist.

In this 23 June 2008 article – You are still wasting your time, or, are analysts just overpaid secretaries? James Montier writes about the whether company visits are useful for fund managers. The answer in general is no but they can be improved by learning to look for evidence that disagrees with us, and seek to disprove our ideas, rather than illustrate them with supportive evidence.

In this article The Road To Revulsion 16 June 2008 James Montier writes about bubbles, that bubbles are a by-product of human behaviour, and that human behaviour is sadly all too predictable.

The details of each bubble are different but the general patterns remain very similar. He also touches on the propensity for commentators to continually proclaim the end of the problem and a resumption of business as usual.

In the 30 May 2008 article Inflation Not The Problem Albert Edwards and James Montier explain why they are sceptical of all the market commentators saying that the worse market decline of the recession was over. How right they were, but it’s the way they arrived at their conclusion that makes the article worthwhile reading.

If you have any interest at all in short selling this is an article for you. On 26 May 2008, with the markets particularly overvalued James Montier turned his thinking to short selling writing Joining The Dark Side: Pirates, Spies and Short Sellers.

In the article he explains a simple short screen with surprising results shown through back testing in the USA and Europe.

In the article with the catchy title Asleep at the wheel, or, How I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb published on 7 April 2008 James Montier points out that company management and analysts are unwilling to revise their profit estimates in spite of the looming recession as everyone thinks their business is recession resistant. He points out that this is why they are all overoptimistic and how you can avoid falling into the same trap.

In this 13 March 2008 research article called Remember, Cassandra was right! James Montier makes a strong argument that the mess in the US economy and housing market was not caused by a black swan event (unpredictable) but rather was sadly predictable.

It follows the standard pattern of a bubble deflating, some thing that we have seen a thousand times before.

On 12 January 2008 James made the last post on his blog called Behavioural Investing – The application of psychology to finance and the home of an investing sceptic.

The articles he wrote is luckily all still there and it’s a real treasure trove of information.

In this 15 January 2008 article The Dash To Trash And The Grab For Growth James Montier wrote just shortly after the absolute peak in the 2008 bull market he suggests that if you cannot move to cash because of career risk then invest in large dividend paying companies as what is going to happen to growth stocks at already high valuations is not going to be pretty. How right he was.

2007

In this blog post called The Sources of Value, written in October 2007 James Montier analyses which of the component sources of return leads to value, over reasonable periods of time, to outperform growth?

On 3 October 2007 James Montier posted a blog article titled Sector rotation: an investment dead end? He argues that investors focusing on sectors rather than stocks are barking up the wrong tree.

James Montier’s book Behavioural investing: a practitioner’s guide to applying behavioural finance was published in September 2007. At the link above you can read parts of the book at Google Books.

In this 24 September 2007 blog post called The myth of exogenous risk and the recent quant problems James Montier argues that many aspect of investment risk are endogenous (like a gambler playing poker, where the actions of the other plays are integral to the game) to the way in which we invest.

The problems experienced by the quant funds in August may help highlight some of these issues.

In this 10 September 2007 blog post Yet more evidence on the folly of forecasting, or why we don’t need economists! James Montier presents even more evidence that humans cannot forecast and why you should avoid listening to anyone who says he can as well as avoid it yourself.

On 21 August 2007 James Montier posted a blog article titled Earnings manipulation as a source of short ideas. He identifies shorting candidates through a measurement called the M score. Past results are impressive in identifying under-performing companies.

On 15 March 2007 James Montier posted a Macro Research article titled Global Equity Strategy . Investing 101: A reading list. Here he comes up with a collection of his best books in different categories (classics, modern, psychological and hidden gems) that is arguably the best reading list for any aspiring investor.

In the 30 January 2007 article by James Montier CAPM is CRAP James says that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is insidious. It creeps into almost every discussion on finance. And them he goes on to systematically take the model apart with real life examples and evidence.

In his 10 January 2007 research paper Contrarian or conformist? James Montier, in his usual style puts himself against the common view saying that the then biggest consensus portfolio bets to him seemed to be small cap and low quality however large cap, high quality looks like the better bet to him. To emphasise he quotes Sir John Templeton once observed, “It is impossible to produce a superior performance unless you do something different from the majority”.

2006

In this 30 November 2006 article with the enticing title Improving returns using inside information James Montier explains the results of a unknown but interesting research paper on share buybacks and how they, when implemented, are a powerful indicator for positive returns.

In this July 2006 research note titled Come out of the closet, or, show me the alpha James features a study that suggests
closet indexing accounts for nearly one third of the US mutual fund industry. Stock pickers account for less than 30% of the market, yet they have real investment skill. A fascinating read.

The article Prophet Among Pinstripes in the April 2006 issue of Fastcompany magazine features James Montier where he gives his five laws about investing bias, evolution, and true happiness.

In March 2006 shortly after the release of Joel Greenblatt’s book The Little Book That Beats the Market James tested the strategy worldwide and in this article called The little note that beats the markets found that on average the Little Book strategy
beats the markets by around 7% p.a. between 1993-2005, and with lower risk than the market! Value plus quality seems to make sense.

In the article Behaving Badly published in February 2006 James Montier features a short test you can take after which you will also become a strong believer in behavioural finance. Give it a try!

2005

In November 2005 James Montier wrote the article Seven Sins of Fund Management – A behavioural critique where he explores some of the more obvious behavioural weaknesses inherent in the ‘average’ investment process.

For example he writes that the first sin was placing forecasting at the very heart of the investment process. An enormous amount of evidence suggests that investors are generally hopeless at forecasting. So using forecasts as an integral part of the investment process is like tying one hand behind your back before you start.

In this 31 March 2005 article called Bargain Hunter James Montier confesses that he is an unabashed value investor. He adds that if the reader does not share this viewpoint, or isn’t open to be persuaded of the merits of such an approach, he should stop reading now for what follows will only distress his.

James teams up with Rui Antunes his “usual accomplice and compatriot in adventures involving large amounts of data” and embarked upon an investigation of value strategies.

In the article Abu Ghraib: Lessons from behavioural finance and for corporate governance, wrote at the end of January 2005 James Montier says even though it is tempting to believe bad behaviour is the result of a few rotten individuals. However, the overwhelming psychological evidence suggests that if you put good people into bad situations they usually turn bad.

2004

In the June 2004 paper If it makes you happy James Montier leaves investment advice aside and explores one of Adam Smith’s obsessions: what it means to be happy.

He also discusses why that’s important to investors, and how we can seek to improve our own levels of happiness. The article further lists
James’s top ten suggestions for improving happiness.

In the article Who’s a Pretty Boy Then? Or Beauty Contests, Rationality and Greater Fools James Montier in February 2004 played a classic Keynes’ beauty contest with over 1000 professional investors.

He found that on average professional investors are using between one and two steps of strategic thinking in forming their expectations. He also found that many investors suffer the curse of knowledge and end up either picking zero or severely underestimating the irrationality of other players.

These results speak directly to the ability of investors to exit the market before the mass exodus. He found, unsurprisingly, that only a very small minority shows the required level of strategic thinking to beat the gun.

In this 76 page presentation Insights into irrational minds and market Applied Behavioural Finance: Insights into irrational minds and market James Montier gave in 2004 he in great detail described the behavioural biases investors are prone to. Its a great summary of a lot of his previous work in a presentation format, summarised in bullet points and graphs.

2003

This November 2003 issue of welling@weeden James Montier offers a reality and earnings checks.

In this January 2003 research paper Running with the Devil: The Advent of A Cynical Bubble James Montier explores the nature and underlying psychology of four different kinds of bubbles. To assess which comes closest to describing the current market.

To us, the current market environment is largely a greater fool market. Because such markets lack fundamental support, they are liable to precipitous declines.

2002

In Darwin’s Mind: The Evolutionary Foundations of Heuristics and Biases James Montier in December 2002 writes that a catalogue of biases that cognitive psychologists have built up over the last three decades seem to have stem from one of three roots – self-deception, heuristic simplification (including affect), and social interaction.

In this paper James explores the evolutionary basis of each of these roots. The simple truth is that we aren’t adapted to face the world as it is today. We evolved in a very different environment, and it is that ancestral evolutionary environment that governs the way in which we think and feel.

In 22 November 2002 James Montier wrote in Part man, part monkey that leaving the trees could have been our first mistake. Our minds are suited for solving problems related to our survival, rather than being optimised for investment decisions. We all make mistakes when we make decisions. The list below gives a top ten list for avoiding the most common investment mental pitfalls.

  1. You know less than you think you do
  2. Be less certain in your views, aim for timid forecasts and bold choices
  3. Don’t get hung up on one technique, tool, approach or view flexibility and pragmatism are the order of the day
  4. Listen to those who don’t agree with you
  5. You didn’t know it all along, you just think you did
  6. Forget relative valuation, forget market price, work out what the stock is worth (use reverse DCFs)
  7. Don’t take information at face value, think carefully about how it was presented to you
  8. Don’t confuse good firms with good investments, or good earnings growth with good returns
  9. Vivid, easy to recall events are less likely than you think they are, subtle causes are underestimated
  10. Sell your losers and ride your winners

>

penis extender

a father's desk by milki.c

Comments

foreclosure homes

On June 30th we hosted Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ) here at C&L for an open ended discussion that started with the immigration reform debate. Rep. Grijalva has graciously agreed to keep us up to date on what's going on in Congress and in the Progressive Caucus he chairs once a month. He'll be visiting with us again today (in the comments forum below) and I've asked him to talk with us about a new bill he and Marcy Kaptur introduced in April, the Right-To-Rent Act, H.R. 5028. The Obama Administration's somewhat tepid HAMP program isn't working and millions of families are still facing foreclosures by avaricious bankers. Rep. Grijalva's bill would let foreclosed families stay in their homes as renters at a fair market rate set by a judge. If banks don't want to become landlords, they would have incentives to renegotiate the terms of the mortgage. The foreclosure crisis needs exactly this kind of creative, common-sense solution, and the Congressman has been out in front on this issue from the beginning. Dean Baker's Center for Economic and Policy Research called the bill “one of the most efficient and simple ways to help millions of families facing foreclosure remain in their homes.”

It would increase the bargaining power and security of homeowners by temporarily changing the rules on foreclosure and allowing homeowners to remain in their homes as renters for a substantial period or time. During this time, homeowners would pay the market rent for the home as determined by an independent assessment.

“Right to Rent immediately gives the homeowner security in their home. They will be allowed to stay there for a substantial period of time, allowing their children to stay in their schools and families to prepare for and plan their future moves,” said Baker in his testimony on Wednesday. “Right to Rent also would make foreclosure much less attractive to investors. This gives investors more incentive to modify loans on their own, without the involvement of the government.”

The GOP is going after Congressman Grijalva's seat like they never have before. They're trying to stir up divisiveness based on the immigration issue in his southern Arizona district. Blue America has a donation page specifically for his campaign One America and we're hoping you'll visit and leave a little token of your appreciation for his leadership and courage. There's an alternative though– a memorabilia auction on eBay! We love all of these items, but are particularly fond of the “doodles.” No two are ever alike, and the two that we are auctioning are particularly exceptional, both for their intricate detail (look for the faces and eyes!), as well as for the setting in which they were drawn (Natural Resources Committee hearings concerning Deepwater Horizon).

Check them out!

Our favorites are the CLEAR Act Markup “Doodle” and the Deepwater Horizon & MMS Hearing “Doodle”. There's also a high quality, union made, perfectly tacky Grijalva bowling shirt and a couple of exceptionally cool bumper stickers.

If you received a foreclosure notice this year, you're not alone. According to tracking firm RealtyTrac, 1.6 million properties received a foreclosure filing — defined as default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — during the first half of 2010. The good news: that number is down 5% from the previous six months. The bad? It's up 8% from the first half of last year. And RealtyTrac doesn't see any relief coming, as a “massive number of distressed properties and underwater loans continues to sit just below the surface.”

While June's total of 313,841 properties with foreclosure filings marked a 3% decrease over the previous month, the news wasn't exactly good for the housing market (not to mention the owners of those 313,841 properties).

“The second quarter was a tale of two trends,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “The pace of properties entering foreclosure slowed as lenders pre-empted or delayed foreclosure proceedings on delinquent properties with more aggressive short sale and loan modification initiatives. …

“The midyear numbers put us on pace to exceed 3 million properties with foreclosure filings by the end of the year, and more than 1 million bank repossessions. The roller coaster pattern of foreclosure activity over the past 12 months demonstrates that while the foreclosure problem is being managed on the surface, a massive number of distressed properties and underwater loans continues to sit just below the surface, threatening the fragile stability of the housing market.”

The top foreclosure locations: Nevada, Arizona and Florida, with California, Utah and Georgia just behind.

1.65 Million Properties Receive Foreclosure Filings in First Half of 2010

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Las Vegas Foreclosures Nevada, 3Bd, 2.5Ba, $ 209,900.00 : ForeclosureDataBank.com by ForeclosureDataBank

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Reese Schonfeld: Cable <b>News</b> Ratings and Race

By now most of you must know that there's little new, merely a continuation of second quarter trends. All four of the networks are losing viewers, CNN losing by far the most and MSNBC, by a nose, the least.

Jennifer Lopez signs deal to become new 'American Idol' judge <b>…</b>

Jennifer Lopez has inked a deal to join American Idol's judging panel for its upcoming 10th season, an industry source tells People. The news dropped j…

Where all the <b>news</b> is good <b>news</b> - Canada - Macleans.ca

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Reese Schonfeld: Cable <b>News</b> Ratings and Race

By now most of you must know that there's little new, merely a continuation of second quarter trends. All four of the networks are losing viewers, CNN losing by far the most and MSNBC, by a nose, the least.

Jennifer Lopez signs deal to become new 'American Idol' judge <b>…</b>

Jennifer Lopez has inked a deal to join American Idol's judging panel for its upcoming 10th season, an industry source tells People. The news dropped j…

Where all the <b>news</b> is good <b>news</b> - Canada - Macleans.ca

ZoomNB, a free monthly dedicated to reporting good news only.

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By Mike Konczal, a former financial engineer and fellow with the Roosevelt Institute who writes at New Deal 2.0

A year ago a week from today I discussed the financial innovation that wasn’t. It was a look at Lewis Ranieri, the creator of the mortgage backed security, as well as one of the minds behind the 1984 Secondary Mortgage Market Enhancement Act that created the market for MBS. In the piece he warns in April 2007 and May 2008 that securitization was never meant to handle a nationwide housing bubble and would have major failures if stressed along these lines.

Portfolio lending, like the lending in George Bailey’s bank, can handle writedowns and prevent foreclosures. There’s someone there who is assigned the role of making sure you can make your payments, thus preventing the major destruction that occurs in foreclosures. Ranieri was trying to alert the Milken conference on those two days that there was real danger, and that the market couldn’t fix it. Full quotes are at the post and worth your time, but this May 2008 quote summarizes:

Lou: The cardinal principle in the mortgage crisis is a very old one. You are almost always better off restructuring a loan in a crisis with a borrower than going to a foreclosure. In the past that was never at issue because the loan was always in the hands of someone acting as a fudiciary. The bank, or someone like a bank owned them, and they always exercised their best judgement and their interest. The problem now with the size of securitization and so many loans are not in the hands of a portfolio lender but in a security where structurally nobody is acting as the fiduciary. And part of our dilemma here is “who is going to make the decision on how to restructure around a credible borrower and is anybody paying that person to make that decision?” And what we need here is financial innovation in the first instance because you can’t do this loan by loan, you are going to have to scale this up to a bigger level and we are going to … have to cut the gordian knot of the securitization of these loans because otherwise if we keep letting these things go into foreclosure it’s a feedback loop where it will ultimately crush the consumer economy.

Moderator: How optimistic are you Lou? You used crisis, you used Great Depression a few minutes ago. That’s a little strong…

Lou: It’s not strong. I believe we know what to do because it is not remarkably different than what we’ve done in the past in the context of the housing bubble. If we are allowed to do it. We know how to restructure loans. The process has not changed and technology has made it easier….it will work because of the financial technology and internet technology…I don’t think this is an issue of the government, in fact we’d be better left to do what it is we actually know how to do, we know how to deal with housing crisis…but the difference between a foreclosure and a restructuring is frequently over 30% and because of the feedback loop that foreclosures create you keep taking a 30% loss on a smaller number. It doesn’t get to be fun. So no this isn’t a government issue, it is something the market needs to do…

And the market has failed. There are no major restructuring efforts through the private market. The legal conflicts and perverse incentives of middlemen servicers has devastated the housing market. The “nudge” philosophy of what the government can do – give the middlemen a little bribe to do the right thing – has also failed. A government action was clearly needed, and a government action was not delivered. Ranieri was wrong thinking that financial engineering would get them out of this legal mess, and growth and unemployment are suffering accordingly.

Representative Brad Miller is a blog reader, so I think he would have seen this writing on the wall in 2007. And I do know that Representatives Brad Miller and Linda Sanchez offered their “lien stripping” (the proper term for what has become known as cramdown) amendment in December of 2007, back when everyone first realized what a major problem we had in securitization (TPMCafe and dailykos).

Mortgage Modification

How well would this have worked? It’s worthwhile to explain, once again, all the strengths of this approach. From Adam Levitin’s Resolving The Foreclosure Crisis: Modification of Mortgages in Bankruptcy:

In light of market neutrality, the Article argues that permitting modification of home mortgages in bankruptcy presents the best solution to the foreclosure crisis. Unlike any other proposed response, bankruptcy modification offers immediate relief, solves the market problems created by securitization, addresses both problems of payment-reset shock and negative equity, screens out speculators, spreads burdens between borrowers and lenders, and avoids the costs and moral hazard of a government bailout. As the foreclosure crisis deepens, bankruptcy modification presents the best and least invasive method of stabilizing the housing market….

In a perfectly functioning market without agency and transaction costs, lenders would be engaged in large-scale modification of defaulted or distressed mortgage loans, as the lenders would prefer a smaller loss from modification than a larger loss from foreclosure. Voluntary modification, however, has not been happening on a large scale for a variety of reasons, most notably contractual impediments, agency costs, practical impediments, and other transaction costs.

If all distressed mortgages could be modified in bankruptcy, it would provide a method for bypassing the various contractual, agency, and other transactional inefficiencies. Permitting bankruptcy modification would give homeowners the option to force a workout of the mortgage, subject to the limitations provided by the Bankruptcy Code. Moreover, the possibility of a bankruptcy modification would encourage voluntary modifications, as mortgage lenders would prefer to exercise more control over the shape of the modification. An involuntary public system of mortgage modification would actually help foster voluntary, private solutions to the mortgage crisis.

Mortgage modification would de

al cleanly with the issues of refinancing, servicing conflicts and perverse incentives, second liens and other junior mortgages, getting rid of all the problems of mortgage securitization expert Ranieri identifies above.

Bankruptcy modification also would deals with the specifics of negative equity and unemployment income shocks without benefitting speculators, removing a real and worrisome issue for helping consumers who need it without helping those who don’t.

This is because in Chapter 13, debtors must bear their finances to the public, have money and time transaction costs, and live on a court-supervised, means-tested budget for three or five years. Chapter 13 also insists on full repayment of certain debts. Chapter 13 filers must have less than $1,010,650 in secured debts, so million-dollar mortgage holders or multiple property holders couldn’t rush to take advantage of this. It keeps speculators out.

This is not a magic solution. There will be those who can’t afford their mortgages even at market clearing rates, for which Right To Rent is a perfect solution. But these are fair and efficient and a proper response for this crisis rather than the costs of other options. And it is important to remember that there still are options for the government to pursue rather than a lot of loud talk about blaming evil runaway homeowners. By any conceivable measure, homeowners are under-strategically defaulting, not over. They are doing this because they want to stay in their homes and communities. It would be a wise idea to have clear government solutions to get them to do so.

Yves here. We have also advocated modification of residential mortgages in bankruptcy, as is now done for commercial real estate and other types of secured loans, such as for pleasure boats. That idea was beaten back early in the reform debate.

Note also that Konczal mentions the use of Chapter 13 bankruptcies. It isn’t widely recognized that servicers and the mortgage foreclosure mills also fight the use of Chapter 13, by filing a motion opposing the bankruptcy stay. Ironically, some attorneys representing Chapter 13 clients have fought these motions by questioning the standing of the party pursuing the foreclosure (often a servicer or MERS, the mortgage registry service, rather than the trust that presumably owns the note), which is producing results to the industry far more damaging had they allowed these Chapter 13 filings to proceed.

Slightly more than one out of three homes sold in Kootenai County during the first quarter of 2010 was in foreclosure or already bank-owned, according to RealtyTrac.

The 182 homes sold was more than triple the number sold out of or after foreclosure in the first quarter of 2009, and 50 percent more than the fourth-quarter 2009 sales, said RealtyTrac, which tracks foreclosure activity nationally.

But the average foreclosure price, at $194,639, was an increase from the $184,707 for the last quarter of 2009, and the $169,472 for the first quarter. Foreclosed homes sold at less than a 5 percent …

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Web ad network: iOS 4 on half of iPhones | Apple - CNET <b>News</b>

Looking at a sampling of 9 million iPhones impressions across its ad network, Chitika finds the new mobile OS installed on 50 percent of them. Read this blog post by Lance Whitney on Apple.

Football Spy transfer <b>news</b> video: The latest on moves for Sol <b>…</b>

Sol Campbell, Javier Mascherano, Mario Balotelli and Manuel Almunia feature on today's Football Spy Show.

iPhone 4 hitting 17 more countries on Friday | Apple - CNET <b>News</b>

The newest flavor of Apple's smartphone will arrive in additional markets July 30, including Canada, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, and Singapore–but not South Korea. Read this blog post by Lance Whitney on Apple.

Foreclosure protest at San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank by Steve Rhodes

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Web ad network: iOS 4 on half of iPhones | Apple - CNET <b>News</b>

Looking at a sampling of 9 million iPhones impressions across its ad network, Chitika finds the new mobile OS installed on 50 percent of them. Read this blog post by Lance Whitney on Apple.

Football Spy transfer <b>news</b> video: The latest on moves for Sol <b>…</b>

Sol Campbell, Javier Mascherano, Mario Balotelli and Manuel Almunia feature on today's Football Spy Show.

iPhone 4 hitting 17 more countries on Friday | Apple - CNET <b>News</b>

The newest flavor of Apple's smartphone will arrive in additional markets July 30, including Canada, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, and Singapore–but not South Korea. Read this blog post by Lance Whitney on Apple.

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Foreclosure protest at San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank by Steve Rhodes

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And yet, The Hollywood Reporter finds the movie market gurus slightly embarrassed at what they call the “family stampede.” Family films have well outpaced pre-release projections repeatedly since May, and the studio bosses are puzzled over why these movies “outperform” their guesses. "The simplest answer is that the tracking doesn't include the young kids themselves," Disney distribution boss Chuck Viane said.

"It's just harder to get a handle on what kids are thinking," another brilliant marketer guessed. "Tracking surveys are based on what people express in phone and Internet surveys, and you're not going to find the young kids that way." Pre-release tracking surveys focus on parents. "The nag factor is what drives those kind of movies," a studio executive tartly declared. "The parents might be less inclined than the kids to see a picture, but then the kids pester the parents, and the rest is history."

So why don’t the studio bosses start factoring in the possibility of a “nag factor” from young children, wanting to go to the movies with parents who demand quality for their children, and make some movies accordingly? No million-dollar marketing exec has thought of that yet?

"There can be a disconnect in tracking sometimes about how far a picture will reach across all audiences," said Sony distribution president Rory Bruer, whose gone-to-China remake of "The Karate Kid" debuted last month with a much-better-than expected $55.7 million. "There's no doubt that word-of-mouth is important in that aspect." Maybe the studio underestimated the affinity of parents for the first version of the film, released back in 1984. It's well on its way to grossing $200 million.

Sometimes, pre-tracking surveys are wrong the other way, overestimating turnout. Last fall, pre-release surveys suggested the Michael Jackson tribute film “This Is It” could ring up “$40 million or more” on its first weekend. The actual figure was a lot less: $23 million.

“Despicable Me” is a great example of the “out-performed expectations” story line. The Universal cartoon with the inept bald-headed villain who learns to love and parent three young girls grossed $56.4 million in its opening weekend, although the “experts” expected a much lower $30 to $35 million weekend.

"People think it was a whole host of things contributing to the big opening," one executive told the Hollywood Reporter. "You had some fresh-looking characters, funny trailers and a huge boost from running those trailers with other hit family films over the past several weeks." Surveys had suggested “tepid” interest from consumers.

Anyone watching NBC or Universal's cable channels were subjected to repeated on-screen promos during their favorite shows. NBC also ran a 30-minute “behind the scenes” infomercial on the opening night of the film, since Friday night TV in the summertime isn't a hot spot for advertisers.

Only one R-rated movie has grossed over $100 million this year, the Leonardo di Caprio horror flick “Shutter Island.” It has just been squeezed out of the top ten by “Despicable Me.” Three movies have grossed over $300 million to top the 2010 list: “Toy Story 3” (a daring G), “Alice in Wonderland” (PG), and “Iron Man 2” (PG-13). Three more movies have grossed over $200 million: “Twilight: The Eclipse Saga” (PG-13) and the family cartoons “Shrek Forever After” (PG) and “How to Train Your Dragon” (PG).

Why can’t greedy Hollywood just look at the math and put their money where the American public’s eyes want to go?

Here’s what should follow: more respect from the movie awards shows for these animated films. “Toy Story 3" drew rave reviews across the board. The St. Petersburg Times said it “isn't merely the best movie of the summer — even with summer just kicking in — but an immediate candidate for best of the year.” Don’t bet the mortgage.

NewsBusters is turning 5. Enter our free t-shirt contest to help us celebrate!

There is no Antennagate.

Well, that’s not true. But what Jobs called Antennagate at today’s press conference is more than just the design flaw in the iPhone 4 they insisted was a non-issue. It’s a design flaw with the entire way the issue was handled — by them and by us. The feeding frenzy around the iPhone 4 has been a months-long affair, for a combination of two reasons: one, that Apple has a unique position in tech coverage, and two, that controversy generates traffic. The result is outrage, confusion, expenditure, flamewars, and everything else that’s been happening online since the launch.

Sorry about that. We’re not perfect.

See, as you may know, Apple enjoys a bit of a coverage bias here and elsewhere on the net. Why is that? You know why, for the most part: sexy products, charismatic leader, a whiff of elitism. They’re fun to write about and many people enjoy reading about them — that’s enough for us. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that, when a design flaw, plain for all to see, was detected in what was heralded as the best smartphone ever to be released, the response in the tech community was mixed and misleading.

I say mixed because Apple coverage seems to be opinionated for more than other coverage, anywhere you look on the net. There is very little emotion in reporting on HP or Palm — perhaps it is because, as MG suggests, Apple works hard on building an emotional bond with its customers, something which its detractors see and abhor. Whether that’s the case or not, Apple news is often delivered with a slant. And I say misleading because in some ways, how Antennagate (which I am going to stop referring to as such; “-gate” terms are overused) was reported exposed many of the weaknesses in the online reporting structure of which we are a small part. Let’s get into that.

Apple’s ubiquity in web culture usually works in their favor: a press conference with a couple hundred people becomes an internet-wide festival of love and hate. Of course, part of that is their knowing how to put on a presentation, the value of which is something many companies deeply underestimate. Even when revealing the iPhone’s flaws and return rates, Steve treated it like he was revealing new flavors of candy. But the coverage is unstoppable and in a way, free. A major part of advertising is getting people talking about your product; with Apple, people are so primed to talk that all they have to do to advertise is show a picture with the name of the product. Considering Apple’s marketing reach, the excesses and Jobsian quips that do routinely set the internet on fire are mercifully few and far between.

In the last few weeks, however, that self-same ubiquity has been Apple’s worst enemy. Imagine if everything you did propagated, memelike, to the farthest corners of the internet, where even the die-hard Apple hater must acknowledge every announcement, even if it’s just to criticize it (something I enjoy occasionally). After using that power judiciously and deliberately for years, the inevitable finally happened: they dropped the ball — and it dutifully propagated. When your failure becomes a meme, you’re cooked.

For the record, these were my two contributions:

The signal drop heard ’round the world was followed by many more reports of launch issues. It was rough, and because of the way the internet has set itself up to instantly propagate exactly this kind of thing, soon people were hearing about iPhone 4 issues before they even knew there was an iPhone 4. The launch problems became a bigger story than the launch. Why? Because we liked it that way.

The appetite for this kind of thing is bottomless. Reasons for interest include fanboyism, professional interest, idleness, schadenfreude, legitimate concern… there was something for everybody. Then Apple, knocked off-balance by their own unpreparedness, gave a response that simply made things worse. “Non-issue. Just avoid holding it in that way.” I can’t think of a response that could have garnered a more comprehensively varied response. Shock! Defensiveness! Rationalizing! Minimizing! The circus became a feeding frenzy. And then the official statement, in which they revealed that iPhones had been using a ridiculously inaccurate signal display for years, and that they were going to make the bars bigger? My god!

So Apple was far from innocent in this whole affair, right up to the non-apology given by Steve today. Their only mistake, Steve implied, was a visual element that caused users to involuntarily ruin their own signal. Steve could talk his way out of a sunburn, as the saying goes, but not this time. Scott noted when we were chatting about this that according to Apple, the iPhone is unlike every other phone on the market — except when there is a problem, at which point it’s just like every other phone on the market. That said, I’m glad they decided to give out bumpers, and of course you can always return the phone for a full refund, so as far as I’m concerned, customers are completely provided for. Class-action lawsuits are pending but I wouldn’t hold out much hope for a settlement.

But were we innocent? One could say we just did our jobs, and wrote up what was going on. We detailed it step by step. Was that the extent of our responsibilities, though? If it was, then Twitter did our job as well as we did, and maybe better. I wrote a while back: “Real time, real discussion, real reporting – choose two.” Looking back on all the coverage, there was a lot of real-time discussion, but almost no reporting at all. Some very valuable input came from Anandtech, when Anand systematically tested the attenuation caused by shorting the antenna, but by and large it was theories, counter-theories, rumors, and fabrications getting multiplied and amplified by blogs like this one. Even ostensibly reliable outlets in the old media posted garbage of every kind. Publishing rumors is, of course, a valuable part of the job, since many are true or end up resulting in interesting discussion. I’m glad we posted all the things we posted. But I also think Steve is right: this was a pretty serious mountain-molehill situation.

The antenna problem is real, of course. How much of a problem it really is — that’s harder to say. Although I would normally say that it’s under-reported in those Apple statistics, that probably isn’t the case here. After all, this is probably one of the most widely-publicized product launches in history, partly because of the huge amount of attention given to this very flaw. If a user has an iPhone, they are almost certain to know of the issue. And if they know of it, they are almost certain to notice it when it happens. Although as Apple and others have noted, it mainly occurs in areas with marginal reception, so many people may find later that they are death grip sufferers and didn’t know it when they take a trip to the boonies. For this reason I’d suggest getting a case even if you don’t really need it where you live.

But those numbers: half a percent of iPhone 4 users complaining? 1.7% return rate? Nearly identical call drops to 3GS? Out of 3 million users, that’s around 30,000 — not a trivial number by any means, but in retrospect, does it justify the international wave of mockery? It ain’t exactly Side Talkin, after all: 2.9 million people seem to be happy with their phones.

The Point

What am I getting at here? Well, I think this whole debacle demonstrates the power of the Internet to report in the wrong way, as opposed to the Tiger Woods incident, which I think demonstrated the Internet’s strengths (though it also resulted in my writing the “Choose Two” article I mentioned). When the event is what matters (e.g. Tiger Woods crashing his car with his wife beating on the windows), and updates on the granularity of minutes are warranted, the Internet is the perfect medium. But by applying that toolset to something it is totally unsuited for, we found ourselves groping in a dark and crowded echo chamber, grasping at factual straws and thrusting them into the faces of everyone we encountered. How little it accomplished! Apple is temporarily humbled, but they would have been one way or another. But they have the benefit of being unfairly set upon, of being able to quote hundreds of articles spewing FUD and unconfirmed nonsense — after all this, they get to play the victim card! That’s the real Antennagate.

Unfortunately, the solution is an impossible one. This is because the solution is discretion. Discretion and restraint are things that have more or less disappeared, since the benefits of being first and wrong outweigh the benefits of being late and right. The short-term benefits, I should say, in the form of traffic and popularity — very important metrics to the powers that be (advertisers and such). The long-term benefits of being a reliable source for news and analysis are becoming more and more difficult to discern, which is disturbing to me. Yet I still believe, and this whole thing has made me believe more, that perspective and discretion are as important as ever — and probably only as rare as they ever were to begin with. I’m not going to get all emotional on you here and say “oh no journalism is dying,” as if I know a thing about that, but let’s be honest: sometimes journalism can be pretty hard to find — even if you think you know where to look.

There you have it. I just wanted to put my own lid on this whole iPhone 4 thing, with the conclusions I’ve drawn from it. If it came off like Apple apologia, I don’t think you read closely enough. The way the world reports and is reported is going through all kinds of transitions, and one day I think that this whole thing and other stories like it are on their way to becoming case studies in Mass Communications 101.

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